Statistical Forecasting and Forecast Models
M3 provides built-in statistical forecasting through MMS190 with algorithms including moving average, exponential smoothing, trend-adjusted, and seasonal decomposition. Forecast model selection in MMS190 depends on demand patterns: stable items use simple exponential smoothing, seasonal products use Winters' method, and intermittent demand items use Croston's method. The MITBAL table stores forecast quantities per period alongside actual demand for consumption logic.
- Configure forecast models in MMS190 selecting appropriate algorithms based on demand pattern classification per item group
- Set smoothing parameters (alpha, beta, gamma) in MMS190 calibrated against 24-36 months of historical demand data
- Define forecast horizons in MMS180 typically covering 12-18 months with weekly granularity for near-term and monthly for far-term
- Enable forecast accuracy tracking in MMS195 measuring MAPE, bias, and tracking signal to trigger model recalibration alerts
- Configure demand segmentation in MMS001 grouping items by demand pattern (smooth, erratic, seasonal, intermittent) for model assignment
Forecast Consumption and MPS Integration
Forecast consumption logic in M3 determines how actual customer orders consume (reduce) forecast quantities to avoid double-counting in MRP. Configured in OPS170 (MPS) and MMS180, the consumption rules define look-ahead and look-back windows, consumption priority, and unconsumed forecast handling. Proper consumption configuration prevents the bullwhip effect that causes alternating overstock and stockout cycles.
- Configure forecast consumption windows in OPS170 with appropriate look-ahead (typically 2-4 weeks) and look-back (1-2 weeks) periods
- Set consumption priority rules determining whether orders consume forecast from the same period first or nearest available period
- Define unconsumed forecast handling policies: carry forward to next period, expire automatically, or flag for planner review
- Integrate MPS output in OPS170 with MRP in MMS100 ensuring planned orders respect both forecast and firm customer commitments
Demand Sensing and Collaborative Forecasting
Beyond statistical baselines, M3 supports demand sensing through integration with Infor Demand Planning (IDP) and manual forecast overrides in MMS180. Sales teams enter bottom-up forecasts at customer or region level, while planners overlay market intelligence and promotional lift. Consensus planning workflows in MMS180 merge statistical, sales, and marketing forecasts into a single operational plan.
- Enable multi-level forecast entry in MMS180 allowing input at product family, customer group, and geographic region granularity
- Configure sales forecast upload interfaces to import bottom-up forecasts from CRM or spreadsheet templates into M3 planning tables
- Set up forecast reconciliation workflows in MMS185 comparing statistical, sales, and consensus forecasts with variance highlighting
- Integrate Infor Demand Planning for advanced demand sensing using external signals like POS data, weather, and economic indicators
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