Export License Delay Schedule Risk Calculator
Export authorizations rarely arrive on the day you hoped. This calculator compares how long a license is likely to take with how much time production and the contract actually give you.
Your numbers
Your own experience with this agency and license type, not a published promise.
Your results
Simple deterministic model. Processing times vary and are not guaranteed by any agency. Seek early confirmation of the authorization needed for each shipment.
Worst-case damages vs base processing days
Sweeps Base license processing time from 10 to 150, holding your other inputs fixed.
Optional shipment hold review
We can review how your ERP blocks shipments that lack a valid authorization and balance tracking.
Optional. The tool and every export work without this. No spam.
How to use it
Enter your internal preparation time, the base processing time you have seen for similar licenses, the chance of a request for information and the extra days one adds. Then enter production days, transit days, days until the contract delivery date and the liquidated damages rate. The output compares the expected and worst-case critical paths and prices the lateness.
- Use history from your own export log, not marketing averages.
- Treat production as parallel only if you can build before the license issues.
The formulas
License time equals preparation plus base processing plus probability times RFI days for the expected case, or the full RFI days for the worst case. The critical path is the longer of production and license time plus packing and transit. Slack equals days remaining minus that path. Damages equal days late times the daily rate. The chart sweeps base processing days to show when the schedule tips from comfortable to costly.
Using the result
If slack is thin, start the application earlier, remove avoidable RFI triggers by completing end-use details and classification evidence, or negotiate a delivery date that follows the license. Some contracts excuse delay caused by government action, so check the excusable-delay language. A common mistake is starting the application only after the purchase order is accepted rather than during quote stage.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long does an export license take?
It depends on the agency, license type, destination and whether reviewers ask questions. Use your own recent history. This tool deliberately has no built-in average because published times change and are not promises.
Why model the RFI chance?
A request for information resets part of the review and is a common cause of delay. Weighting it by probability gives an expected figure, while the worst case shows the exposure if it happens.
Can production start before the license?
Often yes for manufacture in the United States, but the item cannot ship or transfer technical data without authorization. Confirm what activity your own authorization and contract permit.
Does this replace a project schedule?
No. It is a quick risk screen for one shipment. Use it to decide whether to escalate, then plan details in your scheduling system.
If license numbers, expiry dates and shipment balances live in spreadsheets, we can help connect them to your ERP so shipping holds on missing authorizations.
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