Supply Chain & InventoryFree worksheetPDF, Excel, Word export

Promotion Uplift Planning Worksheet

Promotions are the most common reason a statistical forecast misses. This worksheet turns past promotion results into an uplift percentage, applies it to the next baseline and removes the volume that comes from your own other items.

Download:
SKUPromotion typePast baseline unitsPast promo unitsHistoric uplift %Next baseline unitsPlanned promo unitsCannibalization %Net incremental units
65%
2,145
676
40%
910
169
25%
4,125
743
30%
1,235
242
24%
322
62
Total planned promo units
8,737
Total net incremental units
1,892
Average historic uplift
36.8%
Total next baseline
6,460
Net incremental as share of baseline
29.3%

Uplift is only as good as the baseline. Use a baseline that excludes the event itself and other promotions. Add a post promotion dip row if your category shows pantry loading.

Promotion history from your ERP

Ask for an optional review of how to pull promotion history and baselines from your ERP.

Optional. The tool and every export work without this. No spam.

How to use the worksheet

For each SKU, enter the baseline units you would have sold without the promotion in the past event period, the actual units during the event, and the baseline for the coming period. The worksheet calculates the historic uplift, the planned promotion volume and the net incremental units after cannibalization. Edit the example rows, add your own and export to Excel for the demand review.

The formula

Uplift percent equals promotion units minus baseline units, divided by baseline units. Planned promotion units equal the next baseline times one plus uplift. Net incremental units equal planned units minus the next baseline, multiplied by one minus the cannibalization share. The cannibalization share is the part of the extra volume that would otherwise have been sold on other items you also supply.

  • Uplift % = (promo - baseline) / baseline
  • Planned = next baseline x (1 + uplift)
  • Net incremental = (planned - baseline) x (1 - cannibalization)

Reading the result

Compare uplift across promotion types for the same SKU before reusing a number. A price discount and a display often behave very differently. If one event drives the average, prefer the median of several events. A high net incremental share against baseline signals supply risk, so alert the supply planner early.

Common mistakes

The biggest error is a contaminated baseline that already includes earlier promotions, which understates uplift. Others forget the post promotion dip, where customers buy less after an event. Forecast the dip as a negative adjustment in the following one or two periods and review it after the event.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do you calculate promotional uplift?

Subtract the baseline units from the units sold during the promotion, then divide by the baseline units. A result of 0.5 means a 50% lift. The baseline must exclude other promotions or one off events.

What is cannibalization in demand planning?

Cannibalization is volume that a promoted item takes from your other items. It must be netted off when you assess the true incremental demand and the effect on the whole range.

How do I estimate a baseline?

Use a statistical forecast built on history with promotion periods removed or flagged. A rolling average of non promoted weeks is a simple starting point if you do not have a model.

Does this work for B2B manufacturers?

Yes, wherever you run price deals, volume rebates, distributor programs or bundles. Replace the promotion types with your own programs and keep the baseline discipline.

Netray can compute baselines and past uplift from your ERP order history automatically, so planners start from evidence instead of memory.

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