China Golden Week Production Planning Calculator
National Day Golden Week around 1 to 7 October stops or slows most Chinese factories, and the restart is often slower than the official dates suggest. This calculator turns your daily output and holiday assumptions into a net capacity figure and the pre-build you need.
Your numbers
Average good units per working day on a normal day.
Working days you would have without the holiday.
Normal working days that fall inside the closure. A 7 day break often takes 5 working days after weekend swaps.
Weekend days worked to swap for the holiday.
Attendance on swapped weekend days is often lower.
Days after the holiday with reduced attendance or output.
Share of normal output while workers return and lines stabilise.
Your results
Planning estimate only. Holiday dates and make-up working days are set each year by the State Council notice, and individual factories may close longer than the official holiday. Confirm dates and closure plans with each supplier.
Net capacity vs restart ramp-up days
Sweeps Restart ramp-up days from 0 to 7, holding your other inputs fixed.
Factory calendar review
Optional: a review of how supplier closures are represented in your ERP calendars and MRP lead times.
Optional. The tool and every export work without this. No spam.
How to use the calculator
Enter your normal daily output and the working days you would plan for the period, usually the month. Then enter the working days lost, the make-up weekend days worked and the output on those days. Add the number of ramp-up days after the break and the output percentage during them. Enter total demand for the period and read the net capacity, shortfall and pre-build days. The chart shows how sensitive the result is to a slower restart.
The formula
Net capacity equals normal capacity minus capacity lost to closure, plus capacity regained on make-up days, minus the loss during ramp-up. Make-up days are multiplied by their efficiency because attendance on swapped weekends is usually weaker. Ramp-up loss is days times daily output times the share of output not achieved. Shortfall is demand minus net capacity, floored at zero, and pre-build days is shortfall divided by daily output.
Reading the result and acting on it
A shortfall means orders will slip unless you build ahead, run overtime before the break, or move volume. Share the pre-build requirement with suppliers at least six to eight weeks before the holiday, because raw material, tooling and shipping space also tighten. Add the pre-holiday export rush to freight lead time: ports and forwarders are busy before and after. Also check labor availability, since some workers do not return immediately.
- Confirm each supplier's actual closure start and restart dates
- Fix last order dates for materials and tooling changes
- Book freight early and plan for container and booking delays
- Keep safety stock for the weeks after the restart
Mistakes and ERP notes
Common errors are using the official holiday length as the supplier's, ignoring ramp-up, and forgetting the make-up days when working out net capacity. In your ERP, maintain a factory calendar for each Chinese supplier or plant so MRP lead times account for the closure. SAP factory calendars, Oracle work calendars and Infor or Epicor calendars all support this. Without calendar updates the system will promise dates that the factory cannot meet.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long is Golden Week?
The National Day break is officially seven days starting around 1 October, but the exact days and the swapped weekend working days are announced by the government each year. Many factories also close earlier or return later, so ask each supplier for their own dates.
Why model the ramp-up after the holiday?
Not all workers return on the first day, new hires need training and lines need to be re-balanced. Even a small percentage loss over several days is a significant number of units, which is often missing from simple capacity plans.
Does this apply to Spring Festival too?
The same logic applies, but Spring Festival is longer and the post-holiday labor loss is typically larger. Use the dedicated Spring Festival buffer calculator for Lunar New Year and this one for October.
How much should I pre-build?
Use the shortfall figure as a starting point and reduce it by what the supplier can really produce with overtime before the break. Balance it against inventory cost and shelf life. Share a firm requirement early so the supplier can book materials and labor.
If MRP is promising delivery dates inside a Chinese supplier's closure, Netray can help you review how factory calendars and lead times are set up in your ERP.
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